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Tim's Thoughts
08 Sep 2025
Market Commentary- August 2025
As we move towards Autumn and hopefully, for my garden at least, the return of some English rain! I hope you have all enjoyed the summer warmth. If market returns had been low this year, although we were reasonably optimistic, few would have been surprised. At the outset, it appeared that equities would struggle, as markets were worried by a growing list of threats, including tariffs, concerns about the size of spending on AI, fears of recession, increasing taxation, the slow pace of interest rate cuts, and the resurgence of inflation. In April, Trump's early tariff announcements had markets falling…
Tim's Thoughts
04 Jun 2025
Market Commentary – May 2025
The Trump train rolls on, creating volatility in markets and uncertainty in Economies. We have been seeing significant changes since his election. Equities have been volatile, the dollar has been weakening, and bond yields have been rising. The opposite of what you would expect. The flip side of this has been a turnaround in investors' views of Europe and China. What has also changed is that the jury is now out on what the implications for this are for the long term. The changes reflect increasing concern over the US Economy, the uncertainties with on/off tariffs, whether they…
Tim's Thoughts
08 Apr 2025
Market Commentary – April 2025
Market & Investment Review - The Trump Effect As I and many others have said, the most likely outcome from Trump is going to be volatility, and he has so far not disappointed! However, we have also been seeing unexpected changes in markets since his election. US shares have been declining, the dollar has been weakening, and bond yields have been falling (essentially interest rates). The flip side of this has been a turnaround in investors' views of Europe and China. What has also changed is that the jury is now out on whether all this is good…
Tim's Thoughts
20 Feb 2025
Market Commentary – February 2025
Albeit time moves fast, and so I hope the new year has started well for you. My theme for this letter is “Buckle-up” because I have been saying for some time now that I am not convinced Trump is all bad for markets, however, I believe it will be a truly volatile ride! He has certainly come out of the blocks at full speed and we are starting to see the effects of this in markets. The biggest impact, thus far, is on the highest-risk assets, which is to be expected, with a coin on the blockchain losing over…
Tim's Thoughts
12 Aug 2024
Market Commentary – August 2024
Summer is here and encouragingly, whilst the geopolitical risks remain, markets have been in a broadly positive mood across the world with inevitable bumps along the way. Although the super seven tech stocks in the USA have been responsible for the majority of increasing market valuations, in particular, of growth portfolios in recent years, a more levelling out of performance across the board is welcome, particularly for globally diverse portfolios, such as yours. In this regard, on reflection of the above I think relevant for discussion at our next meeting is the old adage that you ‘concentrate portfolios…
Tim's Thoughts
20 May 2024
Market Commentary – May 2024
As Summer approaches, encouragingly, whilst the geopolitical risks remain substantial, markets have started to move upwards across the world. Up until now the super seven tech stocks in the USA have been responsible for a large element of the increasing share valuation, in particular, of growth portfolios in recent years. A more evening out of performance across the board is thus welcome, particularly for globally diverse portfolios, such as yours. Across the world, the trajectory of Economic Growth has been variable, so far this year with the US, Japan and China performing strongly, whilst the UK and Europe…
Tim's Thoughts
21 Feb 2024
Investment Post
As 2024 unfolds, I reflect on where we are and based on the presumption history always repeats itself, I ask after recent events, are we looking into a period like the 1920’s, 1970’s, or a repeat of the last few years? As each of these may require a somewhat different approach to your portfolio going forward. The PE (the number of years earnings it takes to get your money back) of the now called super seven, the top tech stocks in America, is now over 50! They are responsible for a large element of the increasing share valuation of growth…
Tim's Thoughts
31 Aug 2023
Investment Post
As we sit indoors with rain and overcast skies whilst watching stories of holiday-makers suffering wildfires and 45-degree heat in Europe! the world seems full of contradictions. Markets similarly are performing in unexpected ways with tech taking off at a tear this year whilst some safer assets, after a short resurgence, are again lagging. The key issues we see to pay attention to are demographics and changing climate over the long-term, inflation, interest rates and political fractiousness over the short to medium-term. The fastest ever rise in interest rates has, so far, had a mixed effect on its target inflation.…
Tim's Thoughts
01 Feb 2023
Investment Thoughts
As we move into the year markets have got off to a strong start, however, for the next six months at least, I believe they will continue to be volatile. Inflation, Energy issues, the War in Ukraine, Global food challenges, and Covid, are all still very much with us and investment markets always hate uncertainty. China’s recent decision to abandon its zero Covid policy very abruptly, whilst hopefully rebooting its Economy this year is currently causing some further disruption in supply through absenteeism in factories, due to the virus. There are mixed views on the extent Economies & Individuals are…
Tim's Thoughts
01 Sep 2022
Investment Thoughts
As we move into the second half of the year after a tough first, markets are showing some signs of life, however, they continue to be challenged after their post-covid recovery. Inflation, Energy shortages, the War in Ukraine, the threats from China over Taiwan, the increasing risk of global food shortages from the War and the exceptionally warm and dry summer, covid, transport issues, raw material shortages, (it’s a long list!) have all had a major impact on the world and investment markets, which always hate uncertainty. Covid is still with us, the biggest challenge with it now being the…